Decision Modeling And Risk Analysis With Excel

Decision making using sensitivity analysis, decision tree, utility theory, Bayesian statistics, Monte Carlo simulation.

What you’ll learn
Excel
Uncertainty Modeling
Decision Analysis
Data Analysis
Goal Seek
VLOOKUP
Pivot Table
Data Analysis Toolpak
Solver
Sensitivity Analysis
Tornado Chart
Treeplan
Decision Tree
Value of Information
Monte Carlo Simulation
XLRisk
Utility Theory
Utility Function
Exponential Utility Function
Statistics
Central Limit Theorem
Probability Distribution
Requirements
Basic commands of Excel
Description
We all have one thing in common – we don’t know what will happen tomorrow. Living together in this world full of uncertainties, some decisions are rather difficult to make:I want to save some money for my future, but how should I allocate my investment? I want to invest a lot in this new product, but will the market react to it well enough, to justify my investment?I want to hire more employees, or increase my production, but what if the market demand drops?The global pandemic has not ended, should I buy that cheap plane ticket?This course will give you directions at these crossroads. We will use sensitivity analysis, decision tree, and Monte Carlo simulation to better understand this uncertain world, and ourselves.Even better, we can achieve all of these in Excel, and you don’t need to be an advanced Excel user to benefit from this course. We will start from the basics, and go from zero to hero! This course is for anyone who wants to make informed decisions, or just wants to learn more about Excel, or statistics in general. After this course, you will be well-equipped to use Excel to help you tackle real-world puzzles!

Overview

Section 1: Introduction

Lecture 1 Introduction

Section 2: Excel Essentials – Advanced Functions, What-if Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis

Lecture 2 Section Overview: Excel Basics

Lecture 3 Organize Your Data – VLOOKUP V.S. INDEX&MATCH

Lecture 4 Organize Your Data – INDEX&MATCH over VLOOKUP!

Lecture 5 Organize Your Data – SUMPRODUCT (& exercise answer)

Lecture 6 Organize Your Data – SUMIF(S), AVERAGEIF(S), COUNTIF(S)

Lecture 7 Organize Your Data – Pivot Table

Lecture 8 Data Analysis & Solver – Goal Seek

Lecture 9 Data Analysis & Solver – Solver

Lecture 10 Data Analysis & Solver – Data Table

Lecture 11 Sensitivity Analysis – Tornado Chart (no add-in)

Lecture 12 Sensitivity Analysis – Tornado Chart (with add-in)

Lecture 13 Sensitivity Analysis – Solver Sensitivity Report

Section 3: Decision Tree Modeling in Excel – Value of Information, Utility Theory

Lecture 14 Section Overview: Decision Tree in Excel

Lecture 15 Decision Tree Add-in Installation

Lecture 16 Decision Tree Basics

Lecture 17 Introduction – Case study: Rainbow in a cup

Lecture 18 VOI – Value of Information Basics

Lecture 19 VOI – Value of Perfect Information

Lecture 20 VOI – Value of Imperfect Information – Flipped Probability (Bayes’ Theorem)

Lecture 21 VOI – Value of Imperfect Information – Flipped Probability (Tree Flipping)

Lecture 22 Utility Theory

Lecture 23 Exponential Utility Function

Lecture 24 Utility Theory in Decision Tree

Lecture 25 Introduction – Case study: Magic Beans

Section 4: Monte Carlo Simulation in Excel – Statistics, Decision Optimization, Correlation

Lecture 26 Section Overview: Monte Carlo Simulation in Excel

Lecture 27 Statistics Mini Series – Density & Cumulative Functions (PDF&CDF)

Lecture 28 Statistics Mini Series – Normal Distribution ad Confidence Interval

Lecture 29 Statistics Mini Serie – Standard Normal Distribution

Lecture 30 Statistics Mini Series – Stochastic Dominance

Lecture 31 Statistics Mini Series – Central Limit Theorem & First Simulation with XLRisk

Lecture 32 Statistics Mini Series – 8 Common Probability Distributions and Histogram

Lecture 33 Simulation Basics – Monte Carlo Simulation Theory (Overbooking Example)

Lecture 34 Simulation Basics – Monte Carlo Simulation without Add-in (Overbooking Example)

Lecture 35 Simulation Basics – Monte Carlo Simulation with XLRisk (Overbooking Example)

Lecture 36 Optimal Decision in Simulation (XLRisk) – Hiring Decision (Exercise Answer)

Lecture 37 Optimal Decision in Simulation (XLRisk) – Solver & Stochastic Dominance

Lecture 38 Optimal Decision in Simulation (XLRisk) – Utility Theory (Hiring Decision)

Lecture 39 Correlation in Simulation (XLRisk) – What is Correlation?

Lecture 40 Correlation in Simulation (XLRisk) – Hiring Decision Revisit

Entrepreneurs who wants to grow their businesses,People who want to learn more about Excel,Anyone who wants to analyze the uncertainties before making decisions,People who what to learn more about data analysis and modeling,People who what to learn more about statistics